Are ‘carrots’ better than ‘sticks’? New EU conditionality and social investment policies in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Spain

This article asks whether the novel EU approach to member states’ economic adjustment strategies constitutes a ‘social investment turn’ by Italian and Spanish welfare states. The analytical framework combines insights from different strands of literature on policy change, in particular those devoted legacies policy-making ‘conditionings’ (constraints facilitators). study assesses extent social investment, as advocated country-specific recommendations, set measures introduced fight socio-economic impact COVID-19 pandemic programmatic documents issued executives, such State Budget Laws for 2021 National Recovery Resilience Plans. In order evaluate new conditionality outputs, then turns consider economic, previous crisis what would have been prospects turn absence Next Generation funding. Conclusions show that, at least level intentions, ‘carrots’ seem be working better than ‘sticks’ quest more intense Italy Spain.